Patrones de precipitación en el Valle de México, su evolución histórica y sus proyecciones

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Benjamín Martínez López

Estudiar la variabilidad histórica de la precipitación en el Valle de México, analizar la simulación de ésta por los modelos de circulación general y estimar los cambios futuros de la precipitación proyectados por los mismos.

Precipitation patterns in the Valley of Mexico, its historical evolution and its projections

Abstract

The main objective of this study is determine, with based on rainfall records available, if there is a tendency in changing the amount of rain in Mexico City. That is, over time, ¿is more or less rains in Mexico City? Depending on the response arises and contrasting it with future projections associated with climate change we can build the knowledge that supports the development of appropriate public policy to allow use rainwater to help solve the problem of water supply Mexico City.

The climatic data available and analyzed indicate that the total amount of rain that has annually in the central region of Mexico has increased. This increase in precipitation is also observed in the Tacubaya Observatory record. Analysis of other locations in Mexico city Mexico and Morelos State cannot demonstrate that the observed in Tacubaya is part of a regional change, as indicated by the weather itself. To clarify this discrepancy is very important because if the increase detected in Tacubaya is part of a regional increase should be captured by climate models used to generate climate change scenarios. These weather models do not reproduce the increase of the rain present on the climatic registers for Tacubaya, on the contrary, models show that the rain has decreased.

The available precipitation series have many holes and unfortunately do not have the desired quality, making it impossible to have a good level of confidence if the regional increase in the amount of rain is real. However, it may happen that when analyzing the series extended to 2010 detected positive trends in precipitation in other locations, which, at least in Cuernavaca, it may be the case. This possibility should be analyzed, but it is also important to check the precipitation series of the States of Mexico, Guerrero, Morelos and other locations.

In this sense, the results of this study should be viewed as preliminary. The progress of this research allows us to observe that the rain has increased in Tacubaya and has remained without trend in the other localities with review comments to date.

If part of the large volumes of water supplied by rain to infiltrate into aquifers and rivers channeled healthy and storm drains would be reduce the depletion of aquifers and would have a greater availability of water, which would greatly assist for demand for Mexico City. While allowing the urbanization of catchment areas and rivers are used as a draw, you will be wasting a valuable resource. It is unclear whether in the near future there will be more rain as a result of climate change based on this study and in agreement with observations, we cannot support the idea that we have a decrease in rainfall, therefore, we must establish bases to take advantage of this resource in the medium and long term.

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