La pobreza como factor de riesgo para la implantación de políticas públicas de cambio climático en la Ciudad de México

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Director: Armando Sanchez Vargas1
Participants: Francisco Estrada Porrúa2 and
students of the Institute of Economic Research

Determinar los impactos del cambio climático en la pobreza en el DF

Impacts of climate change on urban poverty in the Federal District and public policy options

Abstract

The project aims to estimate the economic impact of climate change at level of urban poverty in the inhabitants of Mexico City.

We propose analyzing the results of a series of econometric models, which allow for various precise numerical measurements of the impact of climate change on a set of poverty indicators for the inhabitants of Mexico City. In other words, intended determine changes in poverty levels, attributable to specific processes of climate change (temperature, precipitation, thunderstorms, etc..), and seeks offer specific suggestions for public policies to contain the advance of urban poverty turned-specific processes resulting from the effects of climate change.

From the results obtained mainly for Gustavo A. Madero, Iztapalapa and Tlalpan counties, its inhabitants are more likely to face shocks associated with climate change. In fact, often receive less drinking water, have perceptions of their health status more negative and its inhabitants prefer migrate to another area and have lower incomes and therefore lower living standards. It is noteworthy that these three counties also have extreme temperatures and precipitation, so it follows that in these areas may have higher poverty rates attributable in part to climate change.

We also determined that extreme events such as extreme temperatures, a greater number of days with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, significant decrease in rainfall for the wet season, among others, could lead to the following phenomena: 1) reduced availability of water, 2) lower levels of health, 3) increased migration, 4) lower income, and 5) a deterioration in living standards.

According to the phenomena mentioned, it is essential in the short term, raise public policy measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on poverty, providing for the creation and repair of water and sanitary infrastructure in those settlements that are now more vulnerable, improvements in the hydraulic system, water treatment plants, arrangement of the drainage system, awareness of water recycling programs, health prevention and communicable strategies about diseases, programs related with free medical care, job creation policies related to prevention of climate change, among others.

1 Institute of Economic Research, UNAM.
2 Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, UNAM.

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