La Economía y Política del Cambio Climático en la Ciudad de México

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Francisco Estrada Porrúa, Clemente Rueda Abad, Manuel Mendoza Ramírez

Producir un modelo estocástico de evaluación integrada para el Distrito Federal que permita estimar los costos potenciales de cambio climático.

The Economics and Politics of Climate Change for Mexico City.

Abstract

The proposal aims develop a stochastic model of integrated assessment for the Federal District to estimate the potential costs of climate change, which is essential to generate probabilistic climate change scenarios for Mexico City using emissions scenarios A2, A1B and B1, with a spatial resolution suitable for the design and analysis to be carried out, these scenarios also consider different assumptions about the evolution of the heat island, also must make projections of gross domestic product (GDP) and population under scenarios A2, A1B and B1, and to make a diagnosis of Public Administration in Mexico City that serve to design criteria that allow adapt-target in the medium term, climate change challenges.

The case of Mexico City is of great interest not only by economic importance for the country, but because it gives a mixture of socioeconomic factors that might make it more vulnerable (such as population density, the increasing demand for services and income concentration, etc.) and factors such as urbanization and land use change could exacerbate the effect of climate change. To date there is no any study on the costs of climate change for the City to estimate its impact on public finances and guide decision-making and public policy making.

The results show that under the scenario of emissions of greenhouse gases (A2), and in a state of inaction, the cumulative costs of climate change during this century to the Federal District may represent between 5.22 and 45.79 times the current GDP of the entity, with a mean equal to 19.01 times the GDP. Moreover, estimates show that climate change could mean additional increase to more than one million people in poverty by 2100, without count other sources of generation of poverty. Thus, the size of potential costs of climate change for the city forced to seek alternatives to reduce risk, including both those aimed at reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases, and local focus to improve environmental conditions (eg, reducing the effects of heat island, reforestation and recovery of bodies of water) and socio-economic, such as improving the capabilities of the population and infrastructure to face climate change.

It is also notable that the effects of climate change could involve high costs for the city and that they are not evenly distributed among the delegations, but rather would have worse impacts on less developed counties and for the population with fewer resources. Assuming a zero discount rate, the cumulative costs of climate change during this century to the Federal District may represent up to 46 times the current GDP of the entity, with an average of 19 times, as mentioned above.

The study shows the importance of designing and implementing local and national policies and international strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change. Among the proposals to reduce the risk include both those aimed at reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases as the aimed at improving local environmental conditions (eg, reducing the effects of heat island, reforestation and recovery water bodies) and socio-economic, such as improving income distribution and reduce socio-economic development level between offices, enhancing capabilities of the population and infrastructure to address climate change.

It is important to say that the results presented are aggregated into two main groups: economic sectors and non-economic. Thus, although the analysis provides an overview of the costs of climate change on the entity level and counties, the results should only be considered as complementary and not meet the need for further studies on the risks of climate change in a disaggregated level for the entity.

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